30 July 2019 : Clinical Research
Trends in the Epidemiology of Sexually Transmitted Disease, Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), Gonorrhea, and Syphilis, in the 31 Provinces of Mainland China
Xuechen Ye1CDEF, Jie Liu2BCDF, Zhe Yi3AE*DOI: 10.12659/MSM.915732
Med Sci Monit 2019; 25:5657-5665
Abstract
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate trends in the epidemiology of the leading sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), gonorrhea, and syphilis, in the 31 provinces of mainland China.
MATERIAL AND METHODS: This retrospective study analyzed the incidence data of STDs from official reports in China between 2004 and 2016. The grey model first order one variable, or GM (1,1), time series forecasting model for epidemiological studies predicted the incidence of STDs based on the annual incidence reports from 31 Chinese mainland provinces. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to group the prevalence of STDs within each province.
RESULTS: The prediction accuracy of the GM (1,1) model was high, based on data during the 13 years between 2004 and 2016. The model predicted that the incidence rates of AIDS and syphilis would continue to increase over the next two years. Cluster analysis showed that 31 provinces could be classified into four clusters according to similarities in the incidence of STDs. Group A (Sinkiang Province) had the highest reported prevalence of syphilis. Group B included provinces with a higher incidence of gonorrhea, mainly in the southeast coast of China. Group C consisted of southwest provinces with a higher incidence of AIDS.
CONCLUSIONS: The GM (1,1) model was predictive for the incidence of STDs in 31 provinces in China. The predicted incidence rates of AIDS and syphilis showed an upward trend. Regional distribution of the major STDs highlights the need for targeted prevention and control programs.
Keywords: Cluster Analysis, Forecasting, Incidence, Sexually Transmitted Diseases, Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome, Gonorrhea, HIV Infections, Models, Statistical, Prevalence, syphilis
Editorial
01 March 2024 : Editorial
Editorial: First Regulatory Approvals for CRISPR-Cas9 Therapeutic Gene Editing for Sickle Cell Disease and Transfusion-Dependent β-ThalassemiaDOI: 10.12659/MSM.944204
Med Sci Monit 2024; 30:e944204
In Press
18 Mar 2024 : Clinical Research
Sexual Dysfunction in Women After Tibial Fracture: A Retrospective Comparative StudyMed Sci Monit In Press; DOI: 10.12659/MSM.944136
21 Feb 2024 : Clinical Research
Potential Value of HSP90α in Prognosis of Triple-Negative Breast CancerMed Sci Monit In Press; DOI: 10.12659/MSM.943049
22 Feb 2024 : Review article
Differentiation of Native Vertebral Osteomyelitis: A Comprehensive Review of Imaging Techniques and Future ...Med Sci Monit In Press; DOI: 10.12659/MSM.943168
23 Feb 2024 : Clinical Research
A Study of 60 Patients with Low Back Pain to Compare Outcomes Following Magnetotherapy, Ultrasound, Laser, ...Med Sci Monit In Press; DOI: 10.12659/MSM.943732
Most Viewed Current Articles
17 Jan 2024 : Review article
Vaccination Guidelines for Pregnant Women: Addressing COVID-19 and the Omicron VariantDOI :10.12659/MSM.942799
Med Sci Monit 2024; 30:e942799
16 May 2023 : Clinical Research
Electrophysiological Testing for an Auditory Processing Disorder and Reading Performance in 54 School Stude...DOI :10.12659/MSM.940387
Med Sci Monit 2023; 29:e940387
14 Dec 2022 : Clinical Research
Prevalence and Variability of Allergen-Specific Immunoglobulin E in Patients with Elevated Tryptase LevelsDOI :10.12659/MSM.937990
Med Sci Monit 2022; 28:e937990
01 Jan 2022 : Editorial
Editorial: Current Status of Oral Antiviral Drug Treatments for SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Non-Hospitalized Pa...DOI :10.12659/MSM.935952
Med Sci Monit 2022; 28:e935952